For Conservative Investors: Microsoft Corp. | - Co. Spotlights available via RSS feed
| Not Your Father's Software Company | 
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There are no safe havens in the stock market. Every stock carries risk. But some less than others. This column features stocks that have shown one or more of the following characteristics: less volatility, better earnings, larger market caps, safe and increasing dividends. In these times of turmoil, our goal is to show readers better opportunities for investing with fewer risks. | | MSFT | $19.64 | Best Features: It's a monopoly, almost. Watch Out For: Continued economic slowdown. | 52-wk range | $17.50-$36.72 | | Beta | 1.07 | | Dividend Yield | 2.6% | | Market Cap. | $175B |
continued from page 1... Going back to 1992 when the company earned 8 cents a share (split adjusted), earnings have increased every year. They used to increase faster than they do today, when the stock was considered a growth stock. Today, it's looked upon as a mature company, trying to expand its expertise into many areas, none of which are as profitable as pure software. Hence, investors don't expect the same growth as in the years past, and the valuation of the company is much lower.
It sports a P/E (price to earnings) ratio of 10.4. In the past, that number was over 100. Yet analysts see better growth for the next 5 years than in the last 5 when earnings increased, on average, by 9.8% a year. Analysts see the next 5 years with earnings improvement of 11.2% a year, on average. Not much difference you're thinking. But when you're dealing with a company that has revenues of more than $60 billion, that 1.4% difference means a better bottom line. In 2008, earnings were $1.87 (fiscal year ends June 30), up from $1.42 in 2007. For 2009, look for $2.01, then $2.26 in 2010. Those are the average estimates from 35 analysts who follow MSFT. Next quarterly earnings are due out on January 22, 2009. Average estimates are for 51 cents a share, up from 50 cents last year in the same quarter. For the following quarter, they see 50 cents, up from 47 cents in the previous year's quarter. Sales are growing as well. In 2007, they were $51.122 billion, then $60.42 billion. This year, analysts see $65.5 billion. Analysts see average annual sales growth of 7.5% over the next 2 years. In the September quarter, they were up 9% from the same quarter last year to $15.1 billion. With broad, diverse product offerings for consumers and business in an economy that demands more efficiency, MSFT shouldn't be as adversely affected by the downturn as many others. Still it won't be exempt, and some analysts have trimmed their original earnings estimates for next year, reflected in the numbers above. The company buys back stock and should continue. Cash flow is very strong as profit margins are exemplary here. Currently, there's $20.722 billion in cash in the bank. The buybacks will bolster earnings per share. Furthermore, the company is cutting costs with a target of $400 million to $500 million in savings through reduced hiring, marketing and capital spending. New products will enhance profitability going forward. The company plans to have a new version of the Windows operating system in 2010. Following that will be the new Office suite of applications. The latest endeavor, happening right now, is the entry into "cloud" computing where MSFT runs its products on computers at its data centers for clients, allowing the client to eliminate its own data center and the need to buy software. Others offering the same service include Google, a major competitor which already offers free online versions of word processing and spreadsheet programs and recently introduced a Web browser, competing with Internet Explorer. More numbers: Operating margin is 39% with a Profit margin of 28.8%. Return on Equity is a phenomenal 54%. There's $2.20 a share in cash. Current ratio is 1.53. Book Value per share is $3.74. There are 8.98 billion shares outstanding with a float of 7.71 billion. Insiders own 13.4% of the stock while institutions have 61%. The annual dividend is 52 cents a share for a yield of 2.6%. It takes 23% of profits to pay the dividend. The stock went ex-dividend on November 18 and will pay on December 10. Microsoft stock has withered, along with the rest of the market, over the last year, going from a high of $36 early on to its current low. With valuations at historically low levels, it's a good time to re-visit a mature, well managed company that used to be one of the Ferraris of the stock market but is now a bus. It's out of the speed lane, but it can still get you where you want to go. Company Web site: www.microsoft.com - Ted Allrich
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