For Conservative Investors: ConocoPhillips | - Co. Spotlights available via RSS feed
| An A++ Company
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There are no safe havens in the stock market. Every stock carries risk. But some less than others. This column features stocks that have shown one or more of the following characteristics: less volatility, better earnings, larger market caps, safe and increasing dividends. In these times of turmoil, our goal is to show readers better opportunities for investing with fewer risks. | | COP | $65.86 | Best Features: Strong balance sheet; lots of oil reserves; $10.86 billion in cash. Watch Out For: The price of oil. | 52-wk range | $47-66 | | Beta | 1.1 | | Dividend Yield | 3.4% | | Market Cap. | $97B |
December 13, 2010 - ConocoPhillips (COP-NYSE) operates as an integrated energy company worldwide. It has six segments: Exploration and Production (E&P), Midstream, Refining and Marketing (R&M), LUKOIL Investment, Chemicals, and Emerging Businesses.
The E&P segment (25% of 2009 revenues) explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, and bitumen. It also mines deposits of oil sands in Canada to extract the bitumen and upgrade it into a synthetic crude oil. The Midstream segment (3% of '09 revenues) gathers, processes, and markets natural gas; and fractionates and markets natural gas liquids in the United States and Trinidad. The R&M segment (71% of '09 sales) purchases, refines, markets, and transports crude oil and petroleum products, including gasoline, distillates, and aviation fuels. The LUKOIL Investment segment consists of 20% interest in OAO LUKOIL, an international integrated oil and gas company. The Chemicals segment (1% of '09 sales) manufactures and markets petrochemicals and plastics. It offers olefins and polyolefins, such as ethylene, propylene, and other olefin products; aromatics products, such as benzene, styrene, paraxylene, cyclohexane, polystyrene, and styrene-butadiene copolymers; and various specialty chemical products comprising organosulfur chemicals, solvents, catalysts, drilling chemicals, mining chemicals, and engineering plastics and compounds. The Emerging Businesses segment develops new technologies and businesses. It focuses on power generation; and technologies related to conventional and nonconventional hydrocarbon recovery, refining, alternative energy, biofuels, and the environment. This segment also offers E-Gas, a gasification technology producing high-value synthetic gas. As of December 31, 2009, the company had 8.36 billion barrels of oil equivalent of proved reserves. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas, but the combination of the two didn't occur until August 30, 2002 when Phillips Petroleum bought Conoco.
In 2008, the stock went from an all-time high of $96 a share to $41.30 before it bottomed at $34.10 in early 2009. In other words it lost 2/3 of its value within 9 months. The explanation is in the earnings. They went from $10.66 in 2008 to $3.24 in 2009, a loss of about 2/3. Stock prices always anticipate the future, and in this case, investors were spot on. Now it looks like earnings are back on track. This year should finish with $5.88 per share according to the consensus from 21 analysts. Next year, they see $6.35. For the fourth quarter, expect $1.23, up from $1.16 last year in the last period. The first three quarters of this year, compared to last year's first three, show the improvement the company's been able to deliver. In 2009, earnings were 56 cents in the first, 87 cents in the second and $1.00 in the third. In 2010, they were $1.47, $1.67, and $1.50 respectively. Notably better. Management has been selling less profitable operations, announcing early in the year it would lose about $10 billion worth. So far, $6.3 billion is gone. So is part of the LUKOIL division. While bringing in some cash, it's also earmarked $10 - $11 billion for 2011 to be spent on expansion and maintenance which should help the bottom line immediately. At COP, everything depends on the price of oil. Right now, it's going higher as China demands more and more black gold. Expect that to continue as the global economy slowly begins to gain positive momentum. India also has a large appetite for oil, along with all of Europe and the U.S.. OPEC recently announced it has no intention of opening more pipelines to fuel increased demand. Higher oil prices will be part of the cost of a better economy. With strong cash flow and over $10.8 billion in cash, the company is buying its own stock back and paying off debts. It also raised the dividend to $2.20 a share, up from $1.91 last year. That gives a yield of 3.4%. Analysts see continued strength in cash flow and more stock buybacks as well as higher dividends. Another avenue for cash: acquiring more Canadian oil sands projects. More numbers: The company's Financial Strength is A++. Trailing P/E is 8.91 and Forward P/E is 10.35. Price to sales ratio is .57. Price to book is 1.37. Operating margin for the last 12 months was 7.17% and Profit margin was 6.62%. Return on equity was 16.88% and Return on assets was 4.86%. Total revenues for the last 12 months was $166.76 billion. Total cash per share is $7.39. Total debt is $28.78 billion. Debt to equity is .41. Current ratio is 1.39. Book value per share is $47.21. There are 1.47 billion shares outstanding. Institutions own 73.70%. Conservative investors will like the strength of the balance sheet as well as the earning momentum. The only real concern is the company's reliance on something which it has no control of: oil prices. If you're bullish on oil, then COP is a stock that warrants more of your time. - Company Web site: www.conocophillips.com - Ted Allrich |