For Aggressive Investors: GT Advanced Tech | | Shining Bright
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This column is for investors willing to take more risk and potentially receive more reward. The stocks mentioned in this column are not recommended to buy or sell. They're brought to your attention so you can investigate them further to determine if they fit your risk profile. Most of the stocks will have less than $1 billion of market capitalization, have more volatility than other stocks, and oftentimes no earnings. And some will have tremendous stories. | | GTAT | $8.45 | Why It's Featured: Ever increasing backlog; lots of cash; exceptional growth in earnings; extraordinary Return on Equity (91.54% in last 12 months). Danger Zones: Federal support for solar industry in question; 2 accounts make up 32% of sales. | Forward P/E | 4.4 | | Earn. Growth | 34% | | Projected Sales Growth | 17% | | Market Cap. | $1.1B |
October 7, 2011 - GT Advanced Technologies Inc. (GTAT-NASDAQ) provides polysilicon production technology and multicrystalline ingot growth systems, and related photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing services for the solar industry worldwide. It also offers sapphire growth systems and material for the LED and other specialty markets.
The company's principal products comprise chemical vapor deposition reactors and related equipment used to produce polysilicon; directional solidification furnaces and related equipment used to cast multicrystalline silicon ingots, which are used to make PV wafers; advanced sapphire furnaces used to crystallize sapphire boules that are used to make sapphire wafers; and sapphire material primarily used to make various products, such as epitaxial-ready wafers. It also provides technology and engineering services for the commissioning, start-up, and optimization of its polysilicon equipment and technology; engineering packages, process licenses, and equipment for the production and purification of trichlorosilane and silane; and hydrochlorination technology, which lowers power consumption of polysilicon production. In addition, the company offers replacement parts and consumables used in its DSS furnaces and other PV equipment; and a range of services in connection with the sale of equipment, including facility design, equipment installation and integration, technical training, and manufacturing process optimization. It sells to polysilicon producers, solar wafer manufacturers, and sapphire producers, as well as the LED and other specialty markets through a direct sales force and indirect sales representatives. The company was formerly known as GT Solar International, Inc. and changed its name to GT Advanced Technologies Inc. in August 2011. GT Advanced Technologies Inc. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Merrimack, New Hampshire. In 2009, GTAT's revenues jumped over 50%, going from $544.3 million to $899 million. Earnings more than doubled to $1.24 (up from 60 cents). Clearly, what they're making has a strong market. How they're doing it suggests excellent management. Now the questions is: Can the company keep delivering? Recently, the stock fell from $17.50 to $6.40. It's bounced back a little, trading in the mid $8 range as of this writing. The reason for the pull back? Most likely the fear that the solar industry will lose federal support after the Solyndra fiasco. Whether that happens is still an unknown and will most likely keep a cloud over the stock until there is some resolution. The good news: GTAT has benefited from the poor showing of most solar panel manufacturers. What's hurting them helps GTAT. Falling module prices and better demand for alternative energy has brought in new competition for panel makers. That creates more orders for GTAT's manufacturing equipment. Also seeing more demand: sapphire crystal material from LED manufacturers. This is a new business for GTAT and has started strong. Industry analysts project the LED market could grow up to a 40 percent compound annual growth rate over the next several years driven by increased sales of products such as flat panel televisions and commercial and residential lighting. Sapphire is the most widely used substrate for this fast-growing market. Revenues are expected to reach $1.05 billion (according to the consensus estimate from 11 analysts) this year, up 16.7% from 2010. Next year, the forecast is for $1.23 billion, higher by 17.4%. Total new orders were $1.3 billion this year, pushing the backlog to a record $2.3 billion in the June quarter.
While those revenues are impressive, there is one caveat that goes with them. The top two customers accounted for 32% of 2010 sales. If one of those were to go elsewhere, it would be a while before those revenues could be replaced. Earnings are set to increase rapidly. Twelve analysts have a consensus estimate of $1.66 for this year vs $1.24 in 2010. That's up 34%. For 2012, the forecast is for $1.92, another gain of 15.66%. Fiscal year ends March 31. Look for the September quarter to show 25 cents a share compared to 28 cents last year in the second period. For the December quarter, analysts see 32 cents vs 46 cents last year. Contemplating more long term opportunities, consider China. It's on record as saying it wants to reduce emissions over the next several years. That means alternative energy sources will be in big demand. One will most likely be solar generated electricity. Helping drive orders will be replacements for already installed, inferior manufacturing equipment. Newer models from GTAT are more efficient and have next-generation production technologies. As this new, larger market develops, expect the cost of solar panels to decrease as volume increases, lessening the reliance on any subsidies for the industry to grow, making it an affordable and attractive alternative for power generation. Essential numbers: - Trailing P/E: 5.53 - Price to sales ratio: 1.01 - Price to book: 3.84 - Operating margin: 33.14% - Profit margin: 21.14% - Return on equity: 91.54% - Return on assets: 21.22% - Total cash: $473.39 million - Cash per share: $3.74 - Total debt: $95.62 million - Total debt to equity: .36 - Current ratio: 1.55 - Book value per share: $2.07 - Beta: 1.49 - Shares Outstanding: 126.57 million - Float: 126.19 million - Dividend: 0 Aggressive investors will like this story. There's plenty of risk with 2 major accounts making up 1/3 of the business and a concern over federal subsidies. But the positives are that sales are booming in the LED market, that China is just beginning its alternative energy programs, and that Return on equity is exceptional. Also, the stock has been beaten down fairly well over the concerns with the upside seemingly forgotten for the moment. If you like risks with strong potential for reward, check out GTAT further.
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