For Aggressive Investors: Buffalo Wild Wings | - Co. Spotlights available via RSS feed
| Wild About Earnings | 
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This column is for investors willing to take more risk and potentially receive more reward. The stocks mentioned in this column are not recommended to buy or sell. They're brought to your attention so you can investigate them further to determine if they fit your risk profile. Most of the stocks will have less than $1 billion of market capitalization, have more volatility than other stocks, and oftentimes no earnings. And some will have tremendous stories. | | BWLD | $31 | Why It's Featured: Earnings growth in tough economic times. Danger Zones: Price up 35% in 3 months. | Forward P/E | 18.8 | | Earn. Growth | 17.5% | | Sales Growth | 13.5% | | Market Cap. | $600M |
June 13, 2008 - Buffalo Wild Wings, Inc. (BWLD-NASDAQ) operates a chain of more than 500 Buffalo Wild Wings Grill & Bar quick-casual dining spots in more than 35 states that specialize in Buffalo-style chicken wings. The eateries offer more than a dozen dipping sauces to go with their spicy wings, as well as a complement of other items such as chicken tenders and legs. BWW's menu also offers appetizers, burgers, tacos, salads, and desserts, along with beer, wine, and other beverages. The company owns and operates more than 160 of the restaurants, while the rest are operated by franchisees.
Buffalo Wild Wings is growing in all the right ways: in restaurants opened (25 in the first quarter with 12 more in weeks); in profits (up 25.5% annually on average in the last 5 years); and acquisitions (7 restaurants were bought in the first quarter). Total restaurants open should be up 15% this year and into next with most of the funding coming from the company's strong cash flow. While other franchises are struggling, BWLD is prospering. Earnings were 51 cents a share in 2005, went to 93 cents in 2006. Last year, they hit $1.10. This year analysts think they'll be $1.36 and next year $1.66. They predict a long term growth rate of 23.53% a year, on average. Earnings have been higher every year since the company went public in 2002 when it reported 27 cents a share. In the last 5 years, earnings per share (eps) grew by 25.5% a year, on average while sales were up 20% a year, on average. Sales last year were $329.7 million. Analysts see $400 million this year and $460 million next year. Over the next 5 years, they predict revenue growth of 13.5% a year, on average, with eps increasing by 17.5% annually. Sales for the first quarter jumped 22% compared to the same quarter last year with eps up 13%. Two events that helped with sales were the Super Bowl and March Madness. In the Super Bowl promotion, over 4 million wings were masticated. Prices were boosted in the quarter, helping margins. While prices increased, the cost of wings decreased, about 5 cents to $1.20 a pound. Other items boosting margins: lower liability insurance, new drink offerings that now include alcohol. On the expense side, higher wages and advertising spending which is almost 30% above last year's levels. One successful marketing effort has been to run specials with limited time on them. It's working as customer traffic is up as is revenue growth. Before you grab your "Buy" ticket, there are some things to consider that aren't as appealing. First is the price of the stock. It's run up 35% since the beginning of the year. Valuation is high with this restaurant carrying a P/E (price to earnings ratio) of 27 though it has carried a P/E of 36, 34, and 32 in 2003, 4, and 5. Book Value is only $7.90 a share. Investors like this story as much as they like the wings and bought the stock as firm believers. Another consideration: the price of corn. With shortages worldwide and ethanol taking more production, farmers feeding chickens with corn and/or cornmeal will be paying more and most likely will pass that on to their buyers. While the price for wings went down last year, don't expect that to happen twice. More numbers: Net profit margin is 6%. Market cap is $600 million on 17.8 million shares. Return on Equity is 14%. There's no dividend. There's no debt. Buffalo Wild Wings has what customers want, even when the economy is soft. Through expansion and acquisitions, management is determined to make the company grow. So far, it's delivered the earnings needed to justify the stock price which hit a new high last year of $47.80 and is now down about 35% from there. But it was trading at $18.30 earlier this year so it's well off the 52 week low. As with all the Aggressive Investor stocks, this one promises a wild ride if you decide to jump on. After you do more research, if you take the plunge, be prepared for volatility. - Company Web site: www.buffalowildwings.com - Ted Allrich |